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What the papers didn’t say

Posted in General, Media, Arif Durrani June 2nd, 2008 by Arif Durrani

‘Newspapers are a growth business’, as supported by a two and half per cent hike in global circulations in 2007, according to figures from the World Association of Newspapers (WAN); I’m just amazed chief executive Timothy Balding could talk with all that sand in his mouth.

No one can blame the leader of the industry trade body for being tempted to take the ostrich–approach and bury his head, the former Press Association man of the eighties has certainly known better days, but there’s no long-term benefit in only telling half a story.

Following last week’s decision by the BBC to axe its newspaper review programme What the Papers Say after 52 years, the corporation justified the decision by pointing to “significant changes in the media environment and the way audience consumes the news”. Perhaps someone should let WAN know.

During the association’s annual bash in Sweden’s second city Göteborg this week, some 1,800 media delegates from 113 countries will be hoping for a more pragmatic approach to current press trends than today’s blind celebration.

While there has been strong growth in many of the younger press markets of the world, in addition to the Asian giants India and China, there is an unmistakeable paradigm shift taking place and newspapers need to take note.

Many mature newspaper markets are experiencing falls in both circulations and advertising revenues, not least the US (by far the largest market), Japan and the UK.

Yet Balding chooses to celebrate the fact newspaper circulation “has been rising or is stable in three-quarters of the world’s countries over the past five years”. Putting aside the huge difference between reporting industry growth and “stability” (stagnation?), take a closer look behind the numbers and a different picture begins to emerge.

In the European Union, paid-for daily newspapers saw a 2.37 per cent drop in 2007 and a near six per cent fall since 2003. And while WAN reports “11 EU countries increasing total circulations in 2007”, 15 other countries actually posted a loss – not least some of the regions biggest players: France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Poland, Sweden and the UK.

Since 2002, WAN has more than doubled the number of markets reported in its annual World Press Trends book, with the data from the new and emerging markets helping to sustain that all important growth trajectory.

But such trend manipulation ignores the fact that newspaper demographics the world over are changing, in most cases getting older, pointing to a worrying disconnect between the industry and any future generation of readers.

The internet is undoubtedly both threat and opportunity. Meanwhile, free dailies now account for nearly seven per cent of all global newspaper circulation, this rises to 23 per cent in Europe. All of which suggests publishing models are being fundamentally reshaped, and yet profits remain elusive.

Daily Mail and General Trust’s Metro in the UK claims to be the only free newspaper anywhere in the world that turns a profit. Whether this is true or almost true, it provides a stark reality check for a sector that increased by 20 per cent last year and is being hailed by many as the future of newspaper publishing.