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The Rajar figures for Q4 2006 were unvieled this morning. One of the major winners was Jamie Theakston who finally wrestled control of the London breakfast audience away from Johnny Vaughan. Theakston’s performance helped Heart to another strong showing in the capital. Elsewhere however the wider commercial market cannot be too happy, having lost share amongst the younger audience. mad.co.uk spoke to a number of key industry insiders for their views on the results. Why not join the debate?

Howard Bareham, head of radio, MindShare

When looking at the Rajars, especially the first of the year, the annual changes provide a much clearer picture than any quarterly shifts.

Everyone will be sure to pick up on the ongoing battle for the commercial top spot in London. Chrysalis’ investment in Heart looks to have paid off, as the station records the biggest reach and share.

It can also boast the capital’s favourite breakfast show, with Jamie Theakston managing to find an extra 180,000 listeners in the last quarter alone. Its audience share is now 7.1 per cent, up from six per cent in 2005.

Emap’s Magic has retained the second spot with 1.79 million listeners and a 5.5 per cent share of the audience. This was a good, solid performance by the easy listening station but has brought added pressure on Capital.

Capital has started to steady the ship after a year of considerable format changes but these are critical times for the station. If someone had said 18 months ago that Magic’s Neil Fox would only be 80,000 listeners behind Johnny Vaughan you would have thought they were nuts. But here we are.

I understand GCap’s decision to stand by star DJ Vaughan, renewing his contract only days ago. What alternative did they have? The management have obviously decided that it is easier to change the format with the same presenter rather than trying to bed in a new person who wouldn’t really be up to speed until another 12 months down the line.

It is important to remember that Capital has not had a marketing push throughout the last year, but insiders assure me a campaign is on its way. The station will be looking at improving its share by the time of the next results.

We should not take anything away from Magic and Heart either. They have both tapped into significant new listeners in the last year by staying true to their core propositions.

Nationally, it’s been a good performance for commercial radio. Small quarterly declines still translate into small increases year-on-year. Its audience share of 10.9 per cent has shortened the BBC’s lead to just 10.7 per cent.

A quick glance at the figures tell you that national digital stations are starting to bear fruit. Notably, Planet Rock has increased its reach by 30 per cent, Mojo by 26 per cent, and 12 other stations saw double digit growth.

Digital stations will continue to increase their reach and share as owners continue to investment in staff and marketing. Some are already doing both very well.

Further industry consolidation is expected this year, but if developments promised by the Radio Centre progress as expected, it should be another good period for commercial radio.

Dominic Woolfe, head of radio, Starcom

In London, Heart and Magic are the clear winners. Magic, in particular, will be pleased that it has become a number one or two London station. They both have a clearly-defined product proposition, which Capital just doesn’t have any more.

Heart and Magic’s ad campaigns both worked very well, both fitted in with the respective brands.

Capital needs to own London again – they used to do events like Party in the Park. They need something like that to increase their presence. I understand they are due to launch a marketing drive, so it’ll be interesting to see how that works out.

As for the Johnny Vaughan situation – who else would they have got in? Stations usually lose listeners when a new host arrives and I don’t think Capital can afford to lose any more. It’s interesting that Kiss is catching them up now. Kiss’ brand extension has gone very well.

The commercial industry as a whole has shown growth and we have to be positive about 2007. Digital is strong and commercial radio has a good presence there.

In terms of advertising revenues, I would say I’m cautiously optimistic. There are a lot of opportunities now, with the new digital technology, it’s not just the traditional 30-second ad slots anymore.

Stacy Pratt, head of radio, Mediacom

London market:

Good news for Heart 106.2 for not only retaining the number 1 spot overall but for the very first time, beating Capital and Jonny Vaughan at Breakfast. Heart have worked hard on their recent programming and marketing strategy which is clearly reflected in winning results. These results follow reports of GCap re-signing Jonny Vaughan for a further 3 years - but it is fair to say that Vaughan has grown his audience in Breakfast, and the station itself has grown period on period - so Gcap are clearly adopting a long-term strategy.

Digital listening:

Digital radio’s continued growth is showing significant increases as more people discover new radio stations. Next quarter will be especially interesting, as the effect of all the DAB radio purchases at Christmas is shown on the Rajar results. There have been pleasing results for Oneword radio - whose reach is up 33% period on period. These results help to illustrate Mediacom’s early commitment to key digital radio services, (eg Oneword) as a way of targetting upmarket audiences - that have traditionally been the domain of the BBC.

Commercial verses the BBC:

Despite a slight decrease in share of listening for commercial radio overall, digital really is the next big thing for radio.  Commercial radio is still a clear leader over the BBC in the digital world and looks set to experience steady growth in the future.

Amanda Barrett, radio engagement specialist, Universal McCann 

BBC v Commercial:

This is not a great result for the struggling commercial sector.

It will come as a blow to Andrew Harrison who recently announced his plans to grow radio’s share of display advertising from 6.1% to 7% in the next three years. This is a very tough target to achieve given the challenges that radio is facing. For commercial radio to develop and grow its audience, greater investment in talent and strong content is needed. Growth in audience will lead to growth in advertisers.

One of radio’s biggest strengths is that it is complimentary to the internet – it should not suffer from the growth of internet use but rather, use this change in consumer behaviour to its advantage. The growing digital landscape will only help radio and continue to prove attractive to audiences and advertisers. 

London market:

The big news is the success of Heart 106.2 which has clearly been fuelled by the enormous marketing investment it has seen over the last 3 months.

The London Market is a variable one and I would not be surprised if we see everything change around at the next RAJAR.

Capital’s situation is not great but could have been worse. The launch of its marketing campaign is yet to show sizable results. But with Vaughan staying and the arrival of Fru Hazlitt determined to turn things around, we believe GCap’s flagship station is in a stronger position to attract both audiences and advertisers.
This is only good news for the industry as a whole. 

Digital:

Digital radio listening continues to go from strength to strength. The growth of digital technology has slowed slightly, but often initial growth is faster due to early adopters. Now that digital radio has becomes more accessible to the mainstream it will continue to grow but more slowly.

The real benefit of radio is choice and interactivity and these two factors are becoming more and more important in consumers lifestyles.

The strength of digital radios future and indeed radio as a whole has been made clear by the mass appeal of the new national digital multiplex licence. Channel 4 is just one of many, who are entering the bid as they see the huge potential of the medium moving forward.

We expect to see commercial radio better monetise the digital opportunities across 2007 as UBC have done with music downloads.